- Lesson: 2
A Way To Approximate The Odds
Clonie Gowen
March 21, 2005
It is very difficult to calculate the exact odds of hitting a drawing hand when you're
sitting at the poker table. Unless you're a genius with a gift for mathematics like
Chris Ferguson, you will not be able to do it. That leaves two options for the rest of
us: The first option is to sit at home with a calculator, figure out the odds for every
possible combination of draws, and then memorize them. That way, no matter what
situation comes up, you always know the odds. But for those of us without a perfect
memory, there's an easier way. Here is a simple trick for estimating those odds.
The first thing you need to do is to figure out how many "outs" you have. An "out" is
any card that gives you a made hand. To do this, simply count the number of cards
available that give the hand you are drawing to. For example: suppose you hold Ac
8c and the flop comes Qh 9c 4c. You have a flush draw. There are thirteen clubs in
the deck and you are looking at four of them -- the two in your hand, and the two on
the board. That leaves nine clubs left in the deck, and two chances to hit one.
The trick to figuring out the approximate percentage chance of hitting the flush is to
multiply your outs times the number of chances to hit it. In this case that would be
nine outs multiplied by two chances, or eighteen. Then take that number, multiply
times two, and add a percentage sign. The approximate percentage of the time you
will make the flush is 36%. (The exact percentage is 34.97%.) Now let's say that on
that same flop you hold the Jd Th. In this case you would have an open ended
straight draw with eight outs to hit the straight (four kings and four eights). Eight outs
with two cards to come gives you sixteen outs. Multiply times two and you will hit the
straight approximately 32% (31.46% exactly) of the time.
One important thing to keep in mind is that the percentage stated is merely the
percentage of the time that you will hit the hand you are drawing to, NOT the
percentage of time that you will win the pot. You may hit your hand and still lose. In
the first example, the Qc will pair the board and may give somearticle a full house. In
the second example both the Kc and the 8c will put a possible flush on the board,
giving you the straight, but not necessarily the winning hand. Still, knowing the
approximate likelihood of making your hand is a good beginning step on the road to
better poker.
