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                           N. F. L.    
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                              Why Gamble on Sports?
 By James Campbell

             Its really not that big of a stretch of the ole imagination to think that
    today’s gamblers are no different than gamblers of old, the only real
    difference is what gamblers of old wagered on and what gamblers of
    today wager on.

        Today we gamble on a lot of the very same things that gamblers of
    yesterday wagered on, with regard to wagering on horse races, cards,
    dice, and even political elections to name a few, but gamblers today
    have the ability to wager on a much wider assortment of things
    including but not limited to church and fire hall bingo, slot machines,
    poker machines and even state sponsored lotteries, heck, today we
    even have a state who has an economy built around gambling halls or
    what we now refer to as casinos.
           It’s kind of hard to believe that it was not all that long ago when a
    gambler interested in wagering on a sporting event was more or less
    forced to run his/her wager thru a local bookmaker and thus had to take
    the line given if he or she wanted to place a wager, unless of course
    the same gambler had access to other “outs”, meaning that this same
    gambler had an out of town connection that he used in order to allow
    himself or herself to gain an edge with respect to the posted spread or
    money line placed on an event.

           In days gone by before the invention of the personal computer, a
    smart gambler with the right connections could find more than his fair
    share of “Middle's”, meaning that if for example NFL team Blue were at
    home against NFL team Red, it was not that unusual to find the
    hometown Blue team bet up with the local books because of
    hometown sentiment while the line placed on the visiting Red team in
    their hometown would hold steady or be bet down.

           Thus, a savvy guy or gal with the right connections in both the Blue
    city as well as in the Red city might just find a 2 or a 2 1/2 point and
    sometimes even a 3 point difference in the local line from town to town
    if he or she looked hard enough and did not hesitate on making a
    wager upon finding the difference in posted lines city to city.

           As an example, lets say that the home Blue team was favored to
    win by 5.5 points on the opening line but by game time the home town
    Blue backers had bet the line up to –7 points, meanwhile, the visiting
    Red team’s fans back home bet the line down to +4.5 by game time.

           Thus the line at game time in Blue town is +/- 7 while the line in
    Red town is +/- 4.5, this creates what is known as a “Middle” meaning
    that a 2.5 point difference now exists between these teams, the worst
    that can happen is that one wager will lose and one wager will win
    which means that all that one would lose is the “juice” associated with
    the wager, meanwhile, the best that can happen is that the actual score
    falls somewhere in the middle which allows the gambler to collect on
    both ends.

           Today however, sports wagering is getting bigger and bigger
    thanks to the availability of the home computer, cable TV, sports talk
    radio, and of course the influx of so many off shore sports books, thus
    the days of finding a good many “middles” are gone although an astute
    gambler can still catch a middle opportunity now and then if he or she
    keeps their eyes open.

           The lines placed on sporting events today are a lot sharper then in
    days gone by, but it all evens out in the end because the odds maker is
    now not the only one privy to the multitude of information available
    surrounding any given sporting event, this is of course due to the large
    number of gamblers today owning a home P.C. which allows the savvy
    gambler to not only gain valuable handicapping information via the
    internet, but to also “line shop”.

           So, the real question my friend is “Why should today’s savvy
    gambler wager on sports instead of wagering on other games of
    chance”?

           Quite simply because a gambler has a much better chance of
    winning on a consistent basis when gambling on sporting events than
    he or she has when playing any casino game, slot or poker machine,
    the state lottery or for that matter any other game of chance, except for
    maybe poker or blackjack, but regardless of whether you gamble on
    poker, blackjack or sports, the savvy gambler must have a firm
    understanding of the game itself and must do his or her homework.

           When it comes to wagering on major sports such as football,
    baseball, basketball and hockey, usually a spread or money line is
    placed on the game by the lines maker and then this established
    spread or money line is wagered on by the gambler, however, most
    novices as well as a lot of supposed experienced gamblers make the
    mistake of believing that the spread or money line placed on a sporting
    event is a true indicator of one teams strength and ability versus the
    opposing teams strength and ability.

           The truth of the matter is that the spread or money line placed on a
    game is meant to garner equal action by the gambler on both teams
    involved, the winner wins his wager while the loser pays the “juice”
    associated with the particular wager that he or she placed, thus
    creating the commission that the middleman or bookmaker/sports
    book makes for handling the transaction between winning and losing
    gamblers.

           The serious gambler understands that it is not the bookmaker or
    sports book who is his or her enemy, the true enemy is actually the
    “Joe public” bettor that places uninformed, opinionated wagers which
    of course causes what is referred to as line movement.

           Line movement is simply the difference +/- in what the opening
    spread or money line was on a particular event versus what the closing
    numbers were on the same event, it must of course be understood that
    many factors can and will influence the opening and closing numbers
    on an event, including but not limited to weather and injury concerns,
    but always remember that it is the very same “Joe public” bettor that
    still influences the established line when they hear of possible weather
    or injury concerns amongst other things and thus often creates an over
    reaction with regard to line movement.

           Its all about odds and percentages when it comes to gambling my
    friend, and that is what truly sets apart sports wagering versus other
    forms of gambling, take a moment and think about it, if you wager on a
    football game for example and the posted line is –3 or –5 or minus
    whatever, it is still a 50% proposition on a straight wager that you are
    either right or you are wrong which makes the odds essentially the
    same as a coin toss.

           Of course you must take into consideration that you pay more
    when you lose, thus on a straight wager you pay 11 to 10 odds or 110
    to 100 dollars wagered, thus the real “Break even” point or winning
    percentage that you must achieve on straight wagers is actually
    52.38% in order to avoid a monetary loss.

           Keeping in mind that 52.38% is the break even point with regard to
    straight wagers, a gambler needs to realize that anything above this
    percentage is money made, most honest, professional handicappers
    achieve winning percentages of 57% to 60% over the course of an
    entire season, often the more experienced handicapper can achieve
    winning rates of 60% to 65% if the ball bounces right for him or her
    here and there over the course of the season.

           I pointed out the above with regard to what the “Break even”
    percentage is versus how honest professionals fare over the course of
    an entire season for a reason, did you ever notice those ads placed in
    Fridays edition of the USA Today newspaper by scamdicappers
    claiming winning percentages of 80% or 85% or 90%?

           Ever see those claims of “Can’t lose”, or “Sure lock winner”, or
    “Game of the year”? Heck, if you get up early enough on Saturday or
    Sunday morning you can even catch a scamdicapper show or two on
    TV with some of the very same individuals whose ads were in the
    previous Fridays USA Today newspaper.

           Ads such as the ones described above are designed to sucker in
    the poor souls who in all likelihood have dug holes for themselves and
    are panicking, in a lot of cases these panicked losers will do or pay
    anything for a “Can’t lose”, or “Sure lock winner”, or “Game of the year”,
    I would even venture a guess that this sort of desperate gambler
    knows in their heart that those claims of 80% or 85% or 90% winners
    are bogus.

           So how did this desperate gambler get into his or her situation to
    begin with? It happens season in and season out because of a failure
    to start with a dedicated starting bankroll that is used solely for sports
    wagering which negates the need to use monies ear marked for the
    mortgage or car payment.

    A dedicated starting bankroll and a firm understanding of money
    management is a must if anyone wants to survive the peaks and
    valleys and ups and downs of the season long marathon that is
    involved with sports wagering.

           I will get into the different aspects surrounding money
    management and other topics in another article, but for now remember
    the key points brought out in this article, the importance of doing your
    homework, understanding that the line or odds placed on a contest is
    meant to garner “equal action” which means that Joe Public is the
    reason for line movement which of course amplifies the importance of
    shopping for the best available line thru multiple “outs” while keeping
    an eye open for middling possibilities.

           Football Forecastor is home to the nations most prolific sports
    handicapper, we specialize in NFL and College Football handicapping
    and take sports betting to a whole new level by treating sports
    wagering as an investment.

           Over the past 30 plus yrs, I have been on both sides of the Sports
    Investment Business, as a entrepreneur that ran his own business, to
    building and maintaining a Private Clientele base that Greatly Benefits
    from my Superior Handicapping expertise in the sporting arena.

            Forecastor has been an internet based sports handicapping
    service since 1997 and over the past eight years has maintained one
    of the very best winning percentages of any sports handicapping
    service.

           If you are looking for a Proven winner that churns out Consistent
    NFL and College Football Winning Selections visit us at http://www.
    footballforecastor.com today!
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